The strong form of Van der Waerden's conjecture via twisted Chowla
Determining the properties of a random polynomial has fuelled significant investigation over the past century. One driving force of this research is a 1936 paper of Van der Waerden. Fix $n \geq 3$ and let $E_n(B)$ be the number of monic, irreducible, non-$S_n$ polynomials $f = X^n + a_1 X^{n-1} + \cdots + a_n$ with $|a_j| \leq B$ for all $j$. A recent breakthrough of Bhargava bounds $E_n(B) \ll B^{n-1}$. This spectacularly resolves a conjecture of Van der Waerden, but leaves open its stronger form, namely that $E_n(B) = o(B^{n-1})$. Inspired by recent progress, we now address this strong form. Bhargava's result, together with work of Chow and Dietmann, essentially reduces the strong Van der Waerden conjecture to the claim that the number of polynomials $f$ with Galois group $A_n$ is $o(B^{n-1})$. Assuming a twisted function field version of Chowla's conjecture, we prove this claim. This not only connects two active and challenging areas of research, but also conditionally resolves the strong Van der Waerden conjecture for all $n \geq 7$. Our proof is based on a variant of Heath-Brown and Pierce's square sieve and $q$-van der Corput differencing. Our methods also apply to the analogous problem of counting square discriminants of polynomials that are not necessarily monic. In addition to describing our new contributions, we briefly elaborate on the various conjectures appearing in Van der Waerden's paper and some of the exciting recent work of others in this area of arithmetic statistics.