Open access
Sep 2026
Do Complex Forecasting Models Beat Simple Benchmarks? A Small-Sample Case Study of Wheat, Corn, and Soybean Prices
Many studies report forecasting gains for sophisticated machine-learning and deep-learning models without testing whether those gains survive comparison against simple, reproducible benchmarks. This study tests that question for one-step-ahead monthly forecasting of wheat, corn, and soybean prices (FRED, 2000–2024; 300...
S. O. Cirilo, J. M. Vargas-Canales, Dora María Sangerman Jarquín et al.
· Forecasting · 0 citations