Sergio Ernesto Medina Cuéllar

Fractional Long-Memory Dynamics and Residual Machine Learning for Medium-Horizon Agricultural Commodity Price Forecasting

This paper develops a hybrid fractional-order framework for medium-horizon forecasting of wheat, corn, and soybean prices, combining a Caputo fractional differential equation with exogenous macro-climatic drivers (weather, crude oil, exchange rate, inflation) and a machine learning residual-correction layer. Existence,...