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Seungjin Choi

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#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

Conformal Prediction under Exponential-Tilt Joint Shift

Conformal prediction can lose coverage when the data distribution changes after deployment. We study adaptation using labeled source data and unlabeled target inputs, allowing both the input distribution and its relationship with outcomes to change. We use Exponential Tilt Reweighting Alignment (ExTRA), introduced for...

Seung-Jin Choi · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Aug 2026

Conformal Bayes under Continuous Label Shift: Sensitivity Analysis and the Limits of Exact Validity

JTS-SCB forms a bounded sensitivity envelope over candidate tilts, but its calibration-only construction does not inherit the exact finite-sample weighted-conformal guarantee, so experiments show that strong plug-in predictive sampling can match the oracle when the shift is well identified, while sensitivity analysis i...

Seung-Jin Choi · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

Split Conformal Prediction with Label-Shift-Adjusted Bayesian Scores

Conformal prediction provides distribution-free uncertainty quantification under exchangeability. However, this assumption is violated by label shift, where the marginal distribution of labels changes while the conditional distribution of inputs given labels remains stable. Under such shifts, standard conformal procedu...

Hyeonsu Lee, Juyeong Kim, Erkhembayar Jadamba et al. · 3 citations
#machine learning Preprint Aug 2026

Conformal Prediction for Molecular Properties under Label Shift

This work addresses one of the most pervasive obstacles to applying AI in real-world drug development by addressing conformal prediction framework tailored to label shift by weighting conformal scores using marginal label probability ratios and enhancing the trustworthiness of AI-driven predictions.

Hyeonsu Lee, Juyeong Kim, Erkhembayar Jadamba et al. · 2 citations

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