Is China’s National Carbon-Allowance Price Predictable? An Interpretable Machine Learning and Volatility Analysis Around the 2025 Market Expansion
China’s national Emissions Trading System expanded from power to steel, cement and aluminum in March 2025. We examine daily carbon emission allowance price predictability using 1203 trading-day prices. Eleven models and a 26-predictor baseline undergo nested expanding-window validation. Separate common-sample sensitivi...