Author

Shikan Lian

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Jul 2026

Verbalized Particle Posterior: Bayesian Inference over Natural Language Hypotheses

The Verbalized Particle Posterior (VPP) is proposed, which treats verbalized learning as a Bayesian inference problem: maintain a population of natural-language hypotheses as particles, update them with Metropolis-Hastings or Sequential Monte Carlo, and predict by Bayesian model averaging.

Yan Zhang, Shikan Lian, Shibo Li · arXiv.org · 0 citations

Jul 2026

Conformal Cascade: Distribution-Free Accuracy Guarantees for Multi-Tier LLM Inference

Conformal Cascade (CC), a multi-tier inference framework that uses conformal prediction set size as the deferral rule: accept when the calibrated set collapses to a single answer, defer otherwise, delivers a distribution-free, finite-sample accuracy guarantee.

Yifan Dou, Shikan Lian, Shibo Li · arXiv.org · 0 citations