Global Flood Risk in the 2026/27 El Niño: An Empirical Estimate from the Historical Relationship
We estimate the response of recorded flood activity to the Niño3.4 sea-surface-temperature anomaly for 104 countries, using a monthly country panel built from EM-DAT (1980–2025) and the NOAA Niño3.4 series. Identification comes from within-country, within-calendar-month variation in the index, net of a linear trend in...