Author

Subir Hait

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Preprint Sep 2026

Is the Linear Threshold Good Enough? A Scale-Free Parameter and Adequacy Test for Curvature-Induced Threshold Displacement

Applied work often locates a threshold by linearizing a smooth function about a reference point and solving for the crossing. When the function is curved, the linear crossing can be substantively displaced even when standard errors are valid. We introduce the curvature-overstatement parameter $\Theta_{COT}=\log(|h_2^*|...

Subir Hait · 0 citations

Preprint Sep 2026

When Is a Relevance Threshold Statistically Resolvable? Minimax Limits for Effect Classification

Statistical precision and scientific relevance operate on different scales. In regular problems, sampling uncertainty contracts at rate $n^{-1/2}$, whereas the magnitude below which an effect is scientifically negligible may be fixed or may vary with information. Let $\Delta_n$ denote a relevance threshold and $I_0$ Fi...

Subir Hait · 0 citations

Preprint Sep 2026

Target-Aware Sequential Inference: Pooled versus Stratified Anytime-Valid Designs

Sequential studies with heterogeneous strata may define the estimand under a target mixture that differs from the sampling distribution. We organize the design problem by guarantee class: one pooled confidence sequence for a single prespecified target, shared pooled inference for a prespecified target set, and stratum-...

Subir Hait · 0 citations

Preprint Aug 2026

Aggregation Distortion in Multilevel Mediation: Estimand Geometry, Design Dependence, and Diagnostics

Researchers often summarize mediation in clustered data with a single-level product-of-coefficients estimator. We show what this pooled analysis estimates and why the target depends on the design. The pooled a-path is weighted by the within-between variance composition of the treatment. The pooled b-path uses a differe...

Subir Hait · 0 citations

Preprint Aug 2026

Evidence, Calibration, and Stability: A Triadic Framework for Hypothesis Testing Under Model Uncertainty

Statistical tests are often asked to do too much. A single reported result is expected to describe what the observed data say, reassure readers about repeated-sampling behavior, and remain convincing when the working model is perturbed. Those tasks are connected, but they are not equivalent. Fisherian inductive inferen...

Subir Hait · 0 citations