Author

Theofanis Papamichalis

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Preprint Aug 2026

Replicable Conformal Prediction

Two analysts who calibrate the same predictive model on independent samples will deploy different prediction sets every time, because the calibration threshold inherits the randomness of the data. Wherever deployments must be audited, cached, or approved across sites, this instability is costly: no one can verify that...

Marios Papamichalis, Regina Ruane, Theofanis Papamichalis · 0 citations

Preprint Aug 2026

Separating Time-Varying Network Composition from Predictive Dependence under Noisy Network Measurement

A common question about networked time series is whether outcomes changed because shocks transmit more strongly or because the pattern of connections changed. Standard practice inserts a recorded network into an outcome regression and reads movements of the fitted coefficient as changes in transmission strength. When t...

Marios Papamichalis, Regina Ruane, Theofanis Papamichalis · 0 citations