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Timm Mutzel

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Preprint Aug 2026

Executable Arbitrage and Market Efficiency in Prediction Markets

The findings show that market efficiency depends not only on payoff structure, but also on whether protocols expose payoff equivalences as executable primitives, and implement a prototype bidirectional extension of the NegRisk Adapter that makes the reverse path executable before settlement.

Jonas Gebele, Timm Mutzel, Florian Matthes · 0 citations

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