From Static Labels to Event-Based Prediction: A Temporal Machine-Learning Framework for SME Business Dissolution in an Emerging Market
Machine-learning models for SME failure prediction frequently report strong results that do not survive rigorous evaluation. Using a firm–year panel of 3796 Thai food-and-beverage SMEs (15,018 firm–years, 258 dissolution events, prevalence 1.72%) drawn from the Department of Business Development records for 2020–2024,...