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Xi-Zhe Zhang

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Preprint Aug 2026

Counterfactual Evaluation of Temporal Observation Protocols

We study counterfactual protocol evaluation: whether data collected under a realised observation protocol determine the predictive value of alternatives that were never deployed. Protocol value is the population $R^2$ of the Bayes-optimal predictor of a fixed trajectory-level target from the measurements an alternative...

Xi-Zhe Zhang · 0 citations
Preprint Aug 2026

The Label Defines the Timescale: Trait-State Limits of Temporal-Aggregate Learning

This work decomposes label variance into an $O(1)$ trait component and an $O(T^{-1})$ state component, explaining why a snapshot can retain cross-sectional predictability while poorly tracking within-person change, and derives task-dependent effective temporal spans.

Xi-Zhe Zhang · 1 citation · ⚡1

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