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Preprint Aug 2026

A Least-Squares Approach to Sample-Based Prior Elicitation

An expert who supplies examples of a quantity often also signals how plausible each one is; when is that signal worth using? We study eliciting a Bayesian prior from an expert who provides example points together with their approximate likelihoods. We propose fitting the prior by least squares--minimizing the squared d...

Y. Pitcan · 0 citations
Preprint Aug 2026

Does a Structural Model Add Anything to the Closing Price? Calibrated forecasting, incremental information, and match leverage in the Italian Serie A

Studies of association-football forecasting routinely report three-way accuracy in the low fifties and present it as competitive with the betting market. Accuracy against a uniform benchmark answers the wrong question; the question worth asking is whether a model carries information a margin-free closing price has not...

Y. Pitcan · 0 citations

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