Automated prediction markets require sponsors to prefund liquidity before observing order flow, creating a financing challenge at launch. We study whether nonnegative charges conditioned on observable payoff direction can improve recovery of this prefunded capital while limiting their effect on informed participation. We develop Seed Capital Flow (SCF), a direction-conditioned levy, in a stylized binary cost-function market with informed and liquidity-motivated traders. When order composition differs across directions, SCF concentrates the permitted fee burden on the direction with relatively more liquidity-motivated flow, whereas a uniform fee spreads it across both directions. Under a sufficiently tight common retention constraint, this allocation yields higher expected recovery capacity and can make additional liquidity choices financially viable. Synthetic numerical audits examine robustness to alternative flow patterns, stochastic arrivals, and label misspecification. The results characterize a mechanism-design tradeoff rather than an empirical prediction: the market remains prefunded, recovery is expected rather than guaranteed, and the analysis is limited to an opening-cohort setting.
Yankai Chen, Bowei He, Zhuohan Xie et al.· 1 citation
Large-taxonomy retrieval often assumes that the input already expresses the target concept. In many settings, however, the input is indirect evidence, such as a table cell whose meaning depends on its row, column, datatype, and context. We call this mismatch the retrieval readiness gap. Our analysis shows that the current index retrieves the target reliably when its semantics are explicit, while raw evidence often leaves it deep in the ranking. We propose Factorized Hypothesis Search (FHS), which maintains multiple partial interpretations over named semantic dimensions. These hypotheses support structured query rendering, multi-hypothesis retrieval, and dimension-level candidate verification. On both financial taxonomy tagging and CodiEsp clinical coding tasks, FHS achieves the best Recall@1, MRR, and final accuracy among the non-oracle methods. Replacing the factorized hypothesis path with a free-text ensemble causes the largest drop in head-ranking performance, while sequential refinement provides no additional gain over FHS's strong parallel first round.
Lin-Hai Ma, Ethan F. Wei, Xueqing Peng et al.· 0 citations
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