Cognitive Processes of Probabilistic Prediction in Reading: Language Model Surprisal Across Model Sizes, Token Granularity, and Reading Paradigms
Surprisal, the negative log probability of a word given its context, is the dominant computational metric for quantifying reading difficulty and a common item difficulty estimator in reading research. Yet how the language model family, surprisal granularity, and corpus type jointly shape the surprisal–reading time link...