Yuan-Lai Lu

The Corroboration Illusion: When More News Makes LLM Forecasts Less True

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to forecast real-world events by retrieving and reasoning over news. We show that this dependence on an open, crawlable news corpus creates a new attack surface: an adversary who can merely publish articles--without access to the retriever, the model, or the user's que...