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Yue Lu

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#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

CHAIN: Calibrated LLM Forecasting via Causal-Temporal Hypergraph Inference

Large language models have achieved significant progress in event forecasting, yet their probability outputs exhibit systematic calibration bias that varies heterogeneously across different domains and question types, undermining the trustworthiness of probabilistic outputs for decision-making under uncertainty. Howeve...

Wen-Jin Liu, Chen-Xi Wang, Yue Lu et al. · 0 citations

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