Author

Yu-Rui Chang

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#machine learning Preprint Sep 2026

From Narrative to Auditable Forecasts: A Structured Scaffold for Agentic Forecasting

Auditable forecasting report that makes forecast construction explicit and supports systematic post hoc analysis, and improves forecasting accuracy and calibration relative to strong agentic baselines, surpasses market-implied references in several settings, and outperforms substantially more expensive deep-research ag...

Yuan-Pu Cao, Yongkang Du, Yu-Rui Chang et al. · 0 citations

Preprint Jul 2026

Critic Experience Bank: Self-Evolving Step-Level Confidence Estimation for LLM Agents

This work introduces the \method (\methodshort), a self-evolving critic framework in which an LLM critic accumulates evidence from its own past judgments and their observed consequences, reducing ECE by up to $54\% relative to the strongest training-free baseline.

Yaopei Zeng, Congchao Wang, JianHang Chen et al. · 0 citations