An unconditional risk bound on automated decisions can be satisfied without automating anything, since a selector that never acts drives the bound to zero. We show this is structural: any risk certificate is defined over a decision contract, the inputs a system acts on plus the semantic relation under which an output counts correct, and weakening either hides base-classifier error. We develop a decision-contract theory: an error-conservation law showing error is only reassigned among harmful automation, human deferral, and semantic masking; a label-free singleton capacity certifying structural incapacity, with a risk-feasible refinement separating recoverable threshold misalignment from risk-constrained incapacity; and a non-degenerate actionability certificate excluding all-abstain solutions by construction. We instantiate this on ATT\&CK-aligned alert triage for LLM-based intrusion detection, the setting that exposed the vacuity failure. Across 3 IDS datasets, 6 LLMs, and 4 error-rate thresholds, empirical false-attribution risk stays at or below target in 90.3% of configurations, with 83.4% mean correct automation. The capacity diagnostic explains every low-utility configuration; its refinement separates genuine misalignment from risk-constrained incapacity, confirmed by an exhibited alternative threshold; a training-stability re-run finds no confirmed structural-incapacity instance; and real fine-grained attack-subtype labels confirm the coarsening-transfer identity under a genuine many-to-one map, with small but non-zero masking mass.
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly explored as network intrusion detection classifiers, but their adversarial robustness under realistic attacker constraints remains unclear. We present a controllability-aware black-box transfer framework for LLM-based network traffic classifiers. The framework partitions flow features into directly controllable (DC), indirectly controllable (IC), and uncontrollable (UC) groups according to network communication semantics, then restricts perturbations to DC features while freezing IC/UC features. Using a shared XGBoost surrogate, we generate finite-difference PGD, greedy coordinate-wise, and NES adversarial examples and transfer them to seven LLM targets and two conventional ML targets across five IDS benchmarks from 1999 to 2022. Across 27 valid LLM configurations and over 500,000 adversarial examples, we find that LLM transfer vulnerability is substantial but dataset- and comparator-dependent. Compared with LightGBM, LLMs are more vulnerable on RT-IoT2022 and CIC-IDS-2018, comparable on NSL-KDD and UNSW-NB15, and less vulnerable on HIKARI-2021; compared with the averaged ML baseline, LLMs show higher ASR on all five datasets. We further observe a consistent cross-architecture transfer hierarchy: gradient- and score-based perturbations transfer more effectively than greedy perturbations across all 27 LLM cells and 9/10 ML cells. Cross-surrogate validation with tree, neural, and linear surrogates yields similar LLM ASR, reducing evidence that the findings are XGBoost-specific. Constraint violation rate is 0\% by construction.