Smooth acyclicity constraints answer whether a weighted support is a DAG, whereas structure learning asks which support change should be made. Existing analyses establish degeneracy for particular constraint formulas but do not isolate what follows from smooth exactness itself. At a DAG boundary, we show that minimal cycle completions generate a squarefree monomial ideal containing every restricted Taylor jet of an exact representation. If the smallest completion has $q$ edges, the first possible response has order $q$ for a vector residual and $2q$ for a nonnegative scalar. Exponentially many constant-scale cyclic manifolds exhibit the same lack of ranking away from the boundary for NOTEARS and DAGMA. We derive the exact selection time for an isolated cycle. When $\Psi'(h)\asymp h^\nu$, the feasibility-only time is $T_0(\varepsilon)=\Theta(\varepsilon^{-(2\nu+1)})$; a score margin changes the leading dynamics at scale $T_0^{-1}$ for $\nu>0$, while $\nu=0$ has a logarithmic boundary layer requiring $\gamma T_0\log(1/\varepsilon)\to0$. Experiments verify this law, and a truth-free separation statistic predicts selection time on 320 official NOTEARS/DAGMA trajectories (Spearman $-0.52$ and $-0.66$, permutation $p<10^{-4}$). For finite samples, a parent-set confidence family and forced-opposite queries certify skeleton and unshielded-collider labels shared by every population optimum of a frozen score. Across 320 runs, every regret bound covers an independent oracle-score audit. None of 3,042 certified skeleton or 2,396 collider labels disagrees with the oracle-score optimum, although 4.4% and 5.5%, respectively, disagree with the generating graph. These results separate DAG feasibility, score-based support selection, and causal identification.
Distribution shift poses a significant challenge to the robustness of machine learning models, but the current solutions only aim to detect out-of-distribution (OOD) samples and predict uncertainty levels. We introduce a problem setting for failure attribution under distribution shift, which enables the models not only to detect OOD samples, but also to find out the reason for their failure. The solution we propose is called self-diagnosing models, which are capable of jointly learning predictive output, predictive uncertainty, and a failure attribution signal. In particular, we use the failure attribution vector, produced by a neural network, which provides a structured representation of predictive unreliability by distinguishing four different types of failures: covariance shift, semantic shift, noise corruption, and adversarial perturbation. In other words, we move from scalar uncertainty towards failure identification. For training the model, we introduce a consistency regularizer that encourages consistency between uncertainty and failure attribution predictions. Moreover, to be able to evaluate the model on its ability to find the reasons for failure, we construct several distribution shift benchmarks with predefined mechanisms for generating distribution shifts.
Flow-based generative models can efficiently produce candidate structures for crystal structure prediction (CSP), but their pretrained objectives do not directly optimize downstream target recovery. Reinforcement-learning post-training offers a flexible solution, yet existing approaches rely primarily on energy rewards and coordinate-only stochastic policies. Predicted energy does not identify the reference polymorph, while reward-driven concentration can reduce the candidate coverage required for Top-N recovery. We introduce CrystalGRPO, a CSP-aligned post-training framework that extends existing ODE-to-SDE policy constructions to the joint coordinate--lattice state. CrystalGRPO combines MACE-predicted energy with a StructureMatcher-based recovery score and provides two operating modes: CrystalGRPO-Q, which prioritizes single-draw recovery, and CrystalGRPO-C, which combines full-trajectory reference regularization with a coverage-aware group advantage to preserve finite-budget target recovery. Across MP-20 and MPTS-52 with PXRDGen and OMatG backbones, both variants reduce one- and twenty-sample RMSE relative to coordinate-only reinforcement in all four backbone--dataset settings. CrystalGRPO-Q consistently improves Top-1, whereas CrystalGRPO-C achieves a higher Top-20 across all settings.
The performance of generative diffusion models is determined by the choice of the reference diffusion process connecting the empirical and prior distributions. Conventional approaches typically trade off simulation-free training against finite-time generation. We propose a framework for designing the reference process that achieves both simultaneously. The key idea is to prescribe tractable time-dependent conditional distributions and then construct the reference process realizing them as its marginals. This framework reveals that score matching is not fundamental to diffusion-model training but instead emerges naturally through reversal of the reference process. We further show that conditional flow matching arises as the small-noise limit of the proposed framework.
Conformal prediction (CP) is a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification that has recently been adapted to large language models (LLMs), providing prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees under exchangeability. Yet for LLMs, nonconformity scores are often induced by an inference pipeline, not just a fixed model, making them depend not only on the data distribution but also on configurable factors such as the prompt template, decoding parameters, and deployment setting. Since such configurations are routinely modified in practice but rarely treated as a source of shift, their impact on CP validity remains poorly understood. We call this \emph{configuration shift} and study it systematically along three axes: prompt template, decoding temperature, and weight quantization. In a broad empirical study spanning $9$ LLMs, $4$ datasets, and $4$ nonconformity scores, we find that configuration shift consistently erodes CP validity, often driving empirical coverage below the target. By contrast, efficiency is largely preserved: valid prediction sets remain close in size to the i.i.d. baseline. We derive coverage lower bounds that attribute this loss to a discrepancy between calibration and test score distributions, and use their finite-sample plug-in versions as empirical diagnostics of shift severity. We further show that these findings lead to practical mitigations: bound-inspired recalibration is effective with limited test examples, while fragility-aware calibration ensembling recovers much of the lost coverage without test data.
Yuqicheng Zhu, Jialin Yu, Lin Li et al.· 0 citations
Masked prediction learns by inferring missing variables from visible context. This raises a fundamental question: when does near-optimal conditional prediction determine the joint data law? We study this via an $\varepsilon$-identifiability modulus measuring the largest joint-law error compatible with masked-prediction excess risk at most $\varepsilon$. For slow-mixing data laws with separated global modes, we show that a model can assign substantially incorrect probabilities to entire data regimes while incurring exponentially small excess risk. An exact information decomposition reveals why: for a fixed mask, the prediction loss detects only the portion of the mode-weight mismatch that the visible context leaves unresolved. For small mode-weight perturbations, this sensitivity is proportional to residual mode uncertainty. Once averaged over masks, this residual uncertainty governs the objective's sensitivity to global mode frequencies, with low-visibility masks restoring mode-weight sensitivity and positive full-mask mass providing universal joint-law control under the joint conditional objective. We provide computational and empirical evidence for these predictions through exact calculations, controlled optimization experiments, and measurements on natural text. More broadly, our study suggests that a predictive objective can identify global distinctions only insofar as its conditioning structure leaves them unresolved.
Agentic assistants capable of proactive, personalized interactions require structured models of user intent and workflow. However, building these models from raw, unstructured screen activity remains an open challenge. We present SERUM, a multi-pass framework that extracts finite-state behavioral models directly from unstructured egocentric video using hierarchical VLM annotation. Processing screen recordings through a sliding window, SERUM alternates between activity-recognition and intent-inference passes, with each pass refining labels using accumulated prior context to reduce hallucination and temporal conflation seen in single-pass annotation. Synonymous states are then merged via sentence embeddings and human-calibrated thresholds into a compact, coherent taxonomy. We evaluate behavioral structure by fitting first-order Markov models over the resulting label sequences (both actions and intents) and measuring predictive accuracy against frequency baselines. Across 61 egocentric videos in four domains (coding, cooking, physical activities, and daily life), we find: (1) iterative label refinement converges to a stable state vocabulary, which we term schematic equilibrium, after several passes; (2) normalized Markov models achieve substantially lower perplexity and higher action predictions than frequency baselines, with the largest gains on structured tasks like coding; and (3) human annotators rate final-pass labels as accurate and meaningfully improved over first-pass labels. To our knowledge, SERUM is the first system to produce interpretable process models from unstructured egocentric screen video without manual annotation, opening a scalable pathway for user modeling and behavioral understanding in the wild. Our demo, code, and results are publicly available
Andy J. Phu, Karin de Langis, James Mooney et al.· 0 citations
Traffic forecasting is important for efficient traffic management and route planning in smart cities. Existing traffic forecasting studies typically assume fixed sensor graphs, overlooking the continuous evolution of real-world traffic networks, e.g., ongoing road network construction and evolving human mobility patterns. These dynamic changes can substantially degrade conventional forecasting models, motivating test-time adaptation (TTA) to efficiently adapt pretrained models during deployment. However, applying TTA to evolving traffic sensor networks remains challenging in two aspects. First, topology expansion introduces new sensors and connections, continuously reshaping the sensor graph. Second, tem- poral shifts vary in time scale and stability, requiring differentiated adaptation to long-term and short-term shifts. In this study, we address these challenges by proposing A2TTA, an Anchored-and-Agile Test-Time Adaptation framework for evolving traffic sensor networks, which transforms topology-induced forecasting errors into an expandable output calibration problem and separates tem- poral adaptation into persistent global correction and agile context-specific specialization. By jointly addressing topology evolution and multi-scale temporal shifts, A2TTA enables efficient and robust adaptation to continuously evolving traffic environments. Extensive experiments on ten real-world traffic networks demonstrate that A2TTA consistently improves forecasting performance across different backbones, datasets, and prediction horizons. Our code is available in https://github.com/lixus7/A2TTA.
Synthetic data augmentation in speech is common practice for linguistic tasks like ASR, but has seen far less work for paralinguistic ones, especially clinical tasks where labelled data is expensive and some patient groups are underrepresented. Voice cloning is one such augmentation approach, but is typically evaluated on speech intelligibility (WER) or speaker similarity (SS) rather than on downstream performance, and it remains unclear whether these preserve the paralinguistic signal such tasks depend on. We benchmark eight voice cloning models on five paralinguistic tasks across public and clinical datasets, showing most preserve signal with modest degradation. We then clone English clinical speech into Japanese and find that training on cloned data outperforms raw cross-lingual transfer for depression and anxiety detection on real Japanese speech, suggesting voice cloning is a promising direction for augmenting clinical speech data in low-resource languages.
Roseline Polle, Owen Parsons, George Fairs et al.· 0 citations
Pruning a long context means committing to the blocks a model will keep, and the usual selector is distilled from a dense teacher's attention. That assumes attention shows which context the answer depends on. We test the assumption on retrieval tasks where the evidence is known exactly, by masking context and measuring whether the answer changes. Attention and causal dependence disagree. Teachers attend to outdated facts that the answer does not depend on, and they attend differently across training runs that use the same evidence. Selectors trained on that attention copy both failures. On a multi-hop retrieval task, a selector distilled from attention routes at 36% to 98% depending on the training run. The same selector trained on causal evidence sets reaches 99% or better on every run. Dense accuracy does not tell the teachers apart. Masking the frozen teacher recovers the causal sets of these tasks without annotations. Frozen pretrained models show the same conflict, and selectors supervised with known evidence labels beat attention-based eviction through 32B when context must be pruned before the question arrives.
Deterministic KV-cache eviction keeps the top-$k$ tokens under an importance score and deletes the rest, and after the deletion the serving system cannot know what the eviction cost it on the current query. We replace the deterministic tail with Poisson sampling at known inclusion probabilities, which makes the eviction error identifiable and turns a survey-sampling variance estimator over the retained set into a per-step error certificate at one extra scalar per retained token. On a thirty-turn assistant compressed to a 10\% cache budget, the certificate-gated system answers 0.97 of recall questions against 0.09 for top-$k$, and for facts stated 26 to 30 turns earlier it recalls 97\% against 2\%. We prove that no estimator computable from the information a deterministic scheme retains is consistent for its own eviction error: evicted values can be altered so that everything retained is unchanged while the true attention-output error grows without bound. Under the Poisson design the certificate covers the realized attention error in 96.9--97.7\% of 12{,}096 replay cells and in 98.1--99.7\% on twelve further architectures. Randomization buys attribution, not prediction: a pre-registered study on LongBench at 6k and 16k tokens (about 74{,}000 generations) finds question-aware eviction at 25--50\% budgets nearly free and output log-probability the better failure predictor, while the certificate answers the question confidence cannot, separating eviction-induced from inherent failures at AUC 0.65--0.75 against 0.47--0.54, and schedules recomputation at 1.7--1.8 times the gain of random gating. On real long-term conversations the gated system returns the full-cache score inside the heavy-damage regime, and the rule that triggers it is the same across five model families.
Sparse autoencoder (SAE) features are used to interpret and steer large language models, yet whether a feature's causal role is stable across SAE families remains untested. Single-token features that activate on one vocabulary item provide the diagnostic case where ground truth permits direct comparison. We analyze 3.9M features across six models and three SAE families using zero-ablation at full layer depth. Single-token features cluster 4.7x tighter in decoder space and concentrate in early layers (Layer 0 in GPT2-Small; L0-L4 in Gemma). Ablating them yields Benjamini-Hochberg-significant logit reductions in 178 of 208 full-layer conditions, with depth controlling whether damage cascades downstream or shapes the output directly. Cross-family causal differences exceed within-family scale effects: on the same base model, GemmaScope and BatchTopK features remain causally anchored, while LlamaScope features are locally redundant. The target token's rank recovers to within 2x baseline 96-98% of the time after the same ablation, and a controlled activation-function comparison reverses sign within the same model, leaving training recipe as the residual candidate. Cross-family interpretability claims are therefore sensitive to training methodology, not just activation function or scale.
Seonglae Cho, Zekun Wu, K. Costa et al.· 1 citation
A new machine-learning framework aims to improve the success rate of computational protein design while moving away from results that reproduce sequences found in nature.
MIT News · Artificial Intelligence· news.mit.eduAug 24, 2026
A new method for surgically removing training examples from a model reveals that as datasets grow, the link between what a model learns and what it produces dissolves.
