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1,162 papers

#machine learning Preprint Open access Sep 2026

Continual Test-Time Adaptation via Entropy Sensitivity-Guidance in Strict Online Setting

Test-time adaptation (TTA) promises robustness under distribution shift by updating a pretrained model on unlabeled test data, but strict online TTA with batch size one and no access to source data is especially prone to drift or collapse. We introduce Sensitivity-Guided Erasing Adaptation (SEGA), a method for strict online continual TTA (CTTA) on corruption-style streams. SEGA uses a small number of structured erasures to probe how predictive entropy changes as information is removed, and uses the resulting per-sample sensitivity trajectories to coordinate recovery and sample selection rather than relying on raw entropy or batch statistics. This yields a practical feedback signal for long-horizon batch-size-one adaptation without periodic resets or model reservoirs. In experiments on ImageNet-C, CIFAR10/100-C, and corruption-generated aquaculture streams treated as controlled corruption-style proxies, SEGA yields consistent robustness and stability gains over strong CTTA baselines while reducing backward passes through sensitivity-based gating.

Chandler Timm C. Doloriel, Yunbei Zhang, Muhammad Salman Siddiqui et al. · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Preprint Open access Sep 2026

On the Instance Hardness as a Decision Criterion in TinyML Systems

TinyML includes the implementation of machine learning on devices with limited memory and computing resources. With the development of technology, AI systems continue to scale in terms of size and computational requirements. This forces researchers to adapt methods to be environmentally sustainable by designing techniques for reducing computational costs and energy consumption in inferring AI models, even in small devices. In this work, we present preliminary findings on a novel application of the tree depth prune instance hardness method to the TinyML system. The results indicate that threshold control can change energy consumption with limited classification quality changes. This method allows us to adjust classification accuracy, thereby influencing computational complexity and energy consumption for inference. We present a work in progress with initial results as a proof of concept.

Tobiasz Puslecki, Krzysztof Walkowiak · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Sep 2026

Influence-Directed Distillation: Solving the Diversity Bottleneck in Sampled-Token On-Policy Distillation

Sampled-token on-policy distillation (OPD) efficiently transfers capabilities from teacher to student using student-generated tokens, requiring teacher probabilities only for sampled tokens. Yet it frequently suffers from diversity distillation failure: the student's pass@1 improves while its pass@$k$ plateaus, failing to inherit the teacher's diversity. To explain this, we introduce First-Order Local Entropy Influence, a signed first-order proxy that decouples each update's entropy effect into the teacher--student log-probability gap and the student's local probability structure, and empirically links entropy contraction to negative-influence positions. Motivated by this, we propose Influence-Directed Adaptive On-Policy Distillation (IDA-OPD): rather than relying on costly full-vocabulary Forward-KL objectives, it preserves entropy-expanding updates while replacing entropy-contracting ones with divergence-adaptive advantage shrinkage, using only the teacher's sampled-token log-probability. Experiments on reasoning-oriented distillation show IDA-OPD consistently improves pass@$k$, inheriting the teacher's diversity through distillation, matches the strongest teacher-informed methods at strictly lower cost, and broadly maintains vanilla OPD's pass@1, all without full-vocabulary teacher information.

Run Yang, Runpeng Dai, Jie Sun et al. · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Sep 2026

The Price of Intelligence: A Quality-Adjusted Price Index for AI Services

Posted prices for AI inference have fallen steadily since 2024, yet the measured speed of that fall depends almost entirely on the method of measurement. This paper constructs quality-adjusted price indices for the AI inference market from public data. The panel assembles 21,024 posted-price observations across 3,208 models and 86 providers and joins them to 4,605 benchmark scores through a latent quality index estimated from benchmark response patterns, so the quality ladder of the hedonic tradition is built here from evaluations in place of product characteristics. Measured by the matched-model methods that statistical agencies apply to software, inference prices fell at 0.10 log points a year. The quality-adjusted index fell at 0.73, so 87% of the decline is invisible to current methods, with direct consequences for measured competition, concentration and productivity in this market. Counted per completed task, moreover, the buyer's price stopped falling. Reasoning models raised token consumption faster than token prices fell, and the seller's and buyer's prices accordingly diverged. A pre-registered validity audit disciplines the quality measure and yields the sharpest result. Excluding contamination-flagged benchmarks leaves model rankings intact at 0.998 yet moves the index by 0.49 log points a year, so the leaderboard-stability arguments standard in AI evaluation offer no defence of economic statistics built on benchmarks. Prices, quality and the audit are fully reproducible from public sources at zero cost.

Louis Yiven Zhu · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Sep 2026

A Unified Perspective on Conformal Prediction and Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Optimization for Uncertainty Quantification

Uncertainty quantification from finite data is central to machine learning, optimization, and automation systems, where decisions must remain reliable under limited samples and test-time distribution shift. Conformal prediction (CP) and distributionally robust optimization (DRO) offer two complementary approaches: CP constructs data-dependent prediction sets with distribution-free finite-sample validity under exchangeability, while DRO optimizes worst-case performance over an ambiguity set around an empirical distribution. We develop a unified probabilistic perspective on CP and DRO by viewing both as ways to turn finite calibration data into a data-dependent quantile estimator that a test score falls below with high probability. From this perspective, CP and DRO correct the empirical quantile along two coordinates of the same family of estimators: CP inflates the quantile level, whereas DRO shifts the quantile value through an ambiguity radius. Both methods provide the same calibration-conditional guarantee for the true distribution, requiring the target coverage to hold with high probability over the calibration sample. Their constructions differ, however: CP uses a closed-form, distribution-free level correction, while DRO uses a value-space correction whose certified radius depends on properties of the unknown distribution and additionally guarantees coverage uniformly over the ambiguity set. This distinction emerges in the tails of the score distribution. Because CP relies on sparse upper-tail order statistics of the calibration samples, its level inflation barely moves the estimator when those samples are dense near the target quantile but overshoots when they are sparse, whereas a well-chosen DRO radius corrects in value space and may avoid this overshoot.

Kehan Long, Yiqi Zhao, Pol Mestres et al. · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Sep 2026

Neural ODE enhanced linear mixed effect models for estimating complex association patterns of time-varying covariates with the marker trajectory

Longitudinal cohort studies produce repeated data that enable the assessment of time-varying association patterns between exposures and health outcomes. Classical linear mixed-effects models (LMMs) can accommodate a large variety of association patterns while accounting for the irregularly spaced, partially observed measurement. But they require the analyst to pre-specify the functional form linking the exposure history to the outcome. We propose the Neural ODE-LMM, which embeds a Neural Ordinary Differential Equation (Neural ODE) within the linear mixed-effects framework: a learned vector field encodes covariate trajectories into a continuous-time latent state that drives both the fixed- and random-effect design, while preserving the standard LMM observation model. This retains classical likelihood-based inference while learning complex, potentially cumulative, covariate effects flexibly. All parameters are estimated by maximising a penalised marginal likelihood. To quantify covariate effects, we introduce contrasts of counterfactual predictions that compare the expected outcome under alternative covariate trajectories with variance estimated via the delta method. In simulations, the model recovers both instantaneous and cumulative-burden effects without prior specification of the functional form. Applied to the Trois-Cit\'{e}s (3C) cohort, a population-based study of 7{,}324 participants, the method reveals trajectory-dependent associations of BMI and fasting glucose with cognitive decline.

Zhe Aurore Li, Quentin Clairon, C\'ecilia Samieri et al. · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Sep 2026

Transformer-Based Flow Shop Scheduling Using MILP-Generated Training Data

Advances in machine learning (ML) have created new opportunities to complement traditional operations research (OR) methods. In particular, transformer models can capture complex interactions in token sequences by mapping tokens into a high-dimensional embedding space and propagating contextual information via attention. This makes them a candidate to model non-permutation flow shop scheduling with secondary resources as a next-token prediction task, where tokens represent job-machine-secondary resource tuples. For training, mixed-integer linear programming (MILP)-generated schedules are tokenized and used as next-token prediction data. During inference, partial token sequences (prefixes) are randomly generated and completed by the trained transformer through constrained decoding. A computational study is conducted on a flow shop with 8 jobs, 4 machines, and 3 secondary resources, where jobs are selected from a fixed pool of 20 jobs that is sampled during training and provides the candidates during prefix completion. The transformer achieves better solution quality (smaller makespans) compared to a genetic algorithm (GA), the NEH heuristic, and random search. It is outperformed only by the MILP model and the iterated greedy (IG) heuristic. The study concludes that transformer models can, to some extent, learn patterns from MILP-optimized non-permutation flow shop schedules and that transformer-based scheduling represents an interesting direction for future research, particularly in settings with a fixed, recurring job set.

Roderich Wallrath · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Sep 2026

ButterMamba: Butterworth-Enhanced Spatial-Temporal Mamba for Efficient Traffic Flow Prediction

Accurate traffic flow prediction is fundamental to intelligent transportation systems, playing a pivotal role in urban mobility optimization and smart city development. While Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) integrated with time series forecasting have emerged as promising solutions, two critical limitations persist: (1) the quadratic complexity of attention-based architectures hinders real-time deployment in large-scale networks, and (2) high-frequency noise in sensor data significantly degrades prediction reliability. These challenges are particularly acute in metropolitan scenarios where both computational efficiency and noise robustness are paramount. To address these limitations, we introduce \textbf{ButterMamba}, a novel and efficient framework based on State Space Models (SSMs). ButterMamba consists of two key components: (1) a Butterworth Spectral Filtering module that preprocesses the data by removing high-frequency noise, allowing the model to focus on significant underlying trends, and (2) a Spatial-Temporal State Mixer that uses a parallel Mamba architecture to efficiently capture both long-range temporal dependencies and complex spatial correlations across the road network. By decoupling noise filtering from spatial-temporal modeling, ButterMamba achieves superior predictive accuracy with linear computational complexity. Extensive experiments on three public datasets demonstrate that ButterMamba not only outperforms existing state-of-the-art models in terms of prediction accuracy but also considerably reduces training time and memory usage.

Limiao Zhang, Yuhui Lu, Jie Gao et al. · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Preprint Open access Sep 2026

Forward-Deployed Full-Stack Engineering for Autonomous Cloud MLOps

Across industries, machine-learning systems support applications ranging from prediction and anomaly detection to forecasting, optimization, and scheduling, yet operationalizing these systems requires coordinating application development, model pipelines, cloud infrastructure, security, deployment, monitoring, retraining, recovery, and rollback. We present an evidence-gated multi-agent framework for transforming a natural-language MLOps cloud engineering task into a verified repository and operational cloud deployment. The framework combines graph engineering, loop engineering, and agent harness engineering. A stateful Graph Orchestrator coordinates specialized agents for repository generation, review, execution, verification, release, and monitoring while governing workflow dependencies, evidence gates, retry bounds, recovery paths, and termination. Consequential lifecycle transitions proceed only when their required predicates are supported by verifiable execution or runtime evidence. Verification failures activate bounded reflection, repair, and re-verification, while runtime evidence of failure, drift, degradation, or policy violation can trigger bounded adaptation, recovery, or rollback. Agent harness engineering constrains repository generation, review, and repair, artifact execution, and cloud operations through controlled capabilities and isolated execution environments. We realize the framework on Google Cloud Platform and evaluate repository completeness, controlled execution, evidence-gated transitions, cloud promotion, and bounded recovery. Our experimental results show that the framework prevents unsupported lifecycle transitions and drives each run toward either a verified operational deployment or an auditable terminal failure.

Sagar Srinivas Sakhinana, Venkataramana Runkana · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Sep 2026

Cross-lingual Functional Vectors for Emotion Detection in Large Language Models

Function vectors (FVs) have recently emerged as a promising mechanism for steering the behavior of large language models (LLMs) by injecting task-specific latent direction representations derived from in-context demonstrations. While prior studies have shown that FVs can recover task behavior in structured in-context learning settings, their effectiveness on semantically complex tasks and their ability to generalize across languages remain underexplored. We investigate the cross-lingual transferability of FVs using multilingual multi-label emotion recognition as a challenging semantic classification benchmark. Specifically, we examine whether FVs extracted from a source language can steer task behavior in another language under both standard clean and perturbed zero-shot settings without providing demonstrations during inference. Across diverse cross-lingual settings, applying FVs substantially improves performance, suggesting that FVs capture language-agnostic, task-relevant signals rather than purely language-specific lexical patterns, and highlighting their potential as a lightweight and transferable mechanism for multilingual task adaptation. We observe that each LLM exhibits a relatively stable optimal range of attention heads for constructing effective FVs, and the pattern remains consistent across languages. In addition, FVs can partially replicate the task-steering effects of standard few-shot in-context learning while avoiding the computational overhead of processing multiple demonstrations, making them effective for large-scale practical applications. Our code is available at https://github.com/yingjie7/cross_lingual_fvs.

Jieying Xue, Phuong Minh Nguyen, Minh Le Nguyen et al. · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Open access Sep 2026

$\mathcal{N}_0$-Foundation: Towards the Age of Tactile Intelligence

We present $\mathcal{N}_0$-Foundation, a paradigm for tactile-enabled embodied manipulation, which integrates tactile sensing hardware, large-scale multimodal data, tactile representation learning, and standardized evaluation. First, we engineer the infrastructure for scalable data collection, including a vision-based tactile sensor, a tactile Universal Manipulation Interface (UMI), and a synchronized visuo-tactile data collection system supporting both robot embodiments and UMI-based demonstrations. Leveraging this infrastructure, we construct NeoData, which contains more than 30000 hours of synchronized visual and tactile demonstrations, spanning six embodiments, 450 tasks, and billions of paired RGB and tactile frames collected through a mixture of real-robot teleoperation and UMI-based demonstrations. To facilitate open research, we further release OpenNeoData, a 5000-hour open-source subset of NeoData. The dataset addresses a central limitation of existing manipulation corpora, critical for deformable-object manipulation, precise assembly, delicate force control, and sustained surface interaction. Capitalizing on the large-scale, heterogeneous tactile measurements, we propose NeoForce, a visuo-tactile representation model that learn transferable tactile representations across different sensor designs. To enable systematic evaluation of tactile embodied models built upon our infrastructure, datasets and tactile representations, we further propose a comprehensive benchmark, which combines the real-world NeoReal suite and the simulated NeoSim suite for standardized evaluation. Experiments across both suites show that policies benefit from the physical contact state rather than from the device-specific appearance of the tactile signal. We release the dataset, the representation, and the benchmark, aiming at supporting future work on tactile-enabled embodied manipulation.

NeoteAI Team, Fudan TEAI Team · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Preprint Open access Sep 2026

Towards a Systems Foundation for Agentic Skills: Architecture, Lifecycle, and Security

Autonomous large language model (LLM) agents increasingly face reliability, context consumption, and execution stability bottlenecks when deployed on complex, long-horizon tasks. While monolithic prompt engineering and stateless tool-calling paradigms struggle to scale, the field is rapidly converging toward \emph{agentic skills}: modular procedural abstractions that externalize execution knowledge into reusable, executable, and portable artifacts. This paper establishes a unified systems foundation and reference architecture for the agentic skills ecosystem. We formalize skills as externalized procedural knowledge bridging high-level cognitive planning with deterministic execution environments, and systematically delineate the architecture across a nine-stage lifecycle: autonomous discovery, authoring and representation formats, memory storage, dynamic retrieval and routing, composition and orchestration, execution and repair, lifelong adaptation, empirical evaluation, and security governance. We further examine marketplace dynamics, public registries, and emerging adversarial threat vectors, alongside runtime verification and defense mechanisms. Finally, we categorize system implementations across software engineering, operating system navigation, embodied robotics, and scientific discovery, while highlighting critical open challenges in continual learning and benchmark realism. This work establishes agentic skills as a foundational paradigm for building scalable, robust, and verifiable autonomous language agents.

Sanket Badhe, Deep Shah, Priyanka Tiwari et al. · 0 citations

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MIT News · Artificial Intelligence Aug 27, 2026

Looking beyond natural sequences

A new machine-learning framework aims to improve the success rate of computational protein design while moving away from results that reproduce sequences found in nature.