Informed traders are supposed to need anonymity: they profit by hiding among the uninformed. A decentralized exchange now publishes the counterparty. Every committed order, cancellation, rejection, and fill carries a persistent pseudonymous wallet address. We reconstruct the full-depth limit order book from a record of 17.1 billion messages and 14.3 million aggressive orders by 147,113 wallets, covering $84.3 billion in taker notional. We report three findings. First, informativeness is a persistent wallet attribute. Wallets ranked by the price movement following their aggressive orders retain that ordering across adjacent ten-day windows, with a rank correlation of 0.52. Second, the ranking predicts returns. Adding the live activity of the highest-ranked wallets to a standard anonymous benchmark of prices, quotes, and order flow raises the out-of-sample R2 for one-second returns to 12.31%, a 13.2% gain (t = 9.2) that is 1.6 times the largest of 200 activity-matched placebo cohorts. Third, measured at realized trades rather than at every sampled moment, the increment grows from 1.43 to 2.47 percentage points of R2. Public wallet histories therefore carry short-horizon price information that anonymous order-book data leave unmeasured.
Conventional public order-book data summarize trading without identifying the accounts behind it. Hyperliquid's Level-4 record also exposes persistent pseudonymous wallet addresses. We reconstruct full-depth books from consensus-ordered messages and evaluate wallet identity as a feature for short-horizon return predict...
Privacy-preserving protocols can repair a vulnerability without establishing whether it was exploited beforehand, even when no theft is reported and aggregate supply is protected. We call the potential value reduction from this gap the verifiability discount. A turnstile model shows how early withdrawal can shift a pos...
Doohwi Cha, H. Kim, Hyeonjun Yeo et al.· 0 citations
We study the spread a liquidity provider needs to break even against counterparties that can exploit a stale quote, and we place two defenses on a single scale: repricing sooner and screening informed flow. A break-even condition pins down the exact screening rate at which a slower maker matches a faster unscreened ven...
Aleksei Adadurov, Эдуард Станиславович Айрапетян, Anton Chtepine et al.· 0 citations
Open-finance platforms can combine models from different vendors while still concentrating capital in the same trade. Shared data, objectives, and representations make decision diversity the relevant object, rather than diversity of model names. We call loading on a shared direction a signal collision. A linear-impact...
E. Benhamou, J. Ohana, B. Guez et al.· Proceedings of the Internati...· 0 citations
We ask how an expert panel should disclose auditable conflicts of interest when reports are named and experts care about their reputations for ability. Before sealed binary assessments are filed, an auditor commits to disclosing no orientation information, each named expert's orientation, or only the number of experts...
A finite-window expected excess-debit bound under conditional charge caps is derived and positive paired slack in every bounded-value cell and a second, incentive misalignment arises when the ML/pacing score transformation is allowed to change payment units.
Dipankar Sarkar· 0 citations
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