Predicting Cadmium and Arsenic Accumulation and Soil-Exposure Health Risks in Agricultural Soils Below the Risk Screening Values: A Refined Flux Balance Model

Abstract

Less attention has been paid to soils with potentially toxic elements (PTEs) below agricultural land risk screening values, even though they continue to accumulate these elements. In this study, four typical areas in Ningxia were selected to determine the concentrations of cadmium (Cd) and arsenic (As) in 176 samples collected from 130 sampling sites across seven matrices. A refined mass balance model was developed by partitioning irrigation input into suspended-solid and supernatant phases and crop removal into grain and straw components. The model was used to analyze the contributions of various input and output factors and to predict future soil Cd/As concentrations and their related health risks via soil exposure. The input fluxes of Cd and As in the four regions ranged from 1.31 to 3.25 g·ha−1·yr−1 and 71.43 to 146.99 g·ha−1·yr−1, respectively, mainly contributed by irrigation water (40~64%), especially suspended solids in irrigation water, and atmospheric deposition (23~40%). The output fluxes of Cd and As were 0.89~1.43 g·ha−1·yr−1 and 13.81~33.86 g·ha−1·yr−1, respectively, dominated by crop harvesting (36~82%). The differences in input and output fluxes were mainly caused by the regional industrial structure and agricultural planting structure. The predicted results showed that soil Cd and As concentrations in all regions would not exceed regulatory limits after 100 years in the current scenario. A health risk assessment based on soil ingestion, dermal contact, and inhalation showed that the hazard indices for Cd and As were negligible, but their total carcinogenic risk reached notable levels. Over time, Cd-specific carcinogenic risk for children increased in several scenarios and transitioned from negligible to notable risk, with soil ingestion being the dominant exposure pathway. According to the results, targeted mitigation strategies, including the regulation of atmospheric deposition, optimization of irrigation water quality, and adoption of straw off-field practices, show potential to effectively limit the accumulation of potentially toxic elements in agricultural soils.