Long-term projections of cancer prevalence in Australia to 2050: a population-based statistical modelling study
TL;DR
A substantial increase in the number of people with a past cancer diagnosis in Australia is expected in 2025–2050, and expansion of appropriate services to meet the demand will be a key challenge for the health system in Australia.
Abstract
Summary Background Cancer prevalence is the number of people alive with a past cancer diagnosis in a specified number of previous years (e.g., last 5 or 30 years). This study estimates 1- to 30-year cancer prevalence in Australia for each year in 2025–2050, for 24 cancer types, the group of remaining cancers, and for all cancers combined. Methods We used validated methods to estimate prevalence as a function of incidence and survival, using tabulated data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare and incorporating the effect of influential cancer-specific factors. The number of people living with cancer (cancers not yet cured) is estimated using the time-to-cure method. Findings The 30-year prevalence is projected to increase by 57.1% from 1,666,020 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1,553,825–1,784,900) in 2025 to 2,617,016 (95% UI: 2,333,949–2,947,174) in 2050. For people aged 80+ years, 30-year prevalence is projected to increase by 111.0% from 481,079 (95% UI: 448,799–515,286) in 2025 to 1,015,061 (95% UI: 917,670–1,125,036) in 2050. Breast cancer is projected to be the most prevalent cancer in Australia in 2050, followed by prostate, melanoma and colorectal cancer. For 30-year prevalence in 2050, 43.9% of people (1,149,364; 95% UI: 1,103,165–1,238,377) are estimated to be living with cancer (cancers not yet cured) and requiring initial treatment or ongoing care. Interpretation A substantial increase in the number of people with a past cancer diagnosis in Australia is expected in 2025–2050. Expansion of appropriate services to meet the demand will be a key challenge for the health system in Australia. Funding This work was not supported by a dedicated research grant. This work and open access publishing were supported by the 10.13039/501100001102Cancer Council NSW, through funding to the Daffodil Centre. KC is a recipient of a Fellowship from the 10.13039/501100000925National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia (APP1194679). JS is a recipient of a Cancer Institute NSW Career Development Fellowship (2022/CDF1154).