The Digital Transformation of Public Governance: A Foresight Study for the Water Sector

Abstract

The digital transformation of public administration requires more complex approaches than previously thought. There are no one-size-fits-all solutions, as each country has a unique resource base, natural conditions, historical context, and capacity to adopt technologies and accelerate development. A key role is also played by a multidimensional analysis of the national governance system’s potential for profound and systemic transformation, an ambidextrous approach to current and strategic tasks, and the search for relevant examples that have proven their viability under similar conditions. This article presents an expanded model for the digital transformation of public administration in countries with a catch-up development model. It provides a theoretical rationale and approaches for the transition to high-tech cloud platforms. The limitations, risks, and potential of the digital transition are illustrated using the example of countries in the Middle East and North Africa (Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt, etc.). Based on the foresight process, criteria for prioritizing management tasks have been developed, defining review procedures, measurement scales, and rules for selecting weightings; as a result, the presented model becomes structurally reproducible and can be applied in various management contexts. Its potential applications are illustrated using the water sectors of Tunisia and Morocco as examples. The paper explains why, despite the maturity of these technologies and their proven effectiveness in a number of leading countries, they cannot be applied in countries where the conditions are not yet ready for such a transition. It offers recommendations on which approaches can facilitate the digital transition in public administration in developing regions and provide a foundation for reaching a new level of opportunities.