Geotechnical Evaluation of Gradient-Based Neural Networks for Factor of Safety Prediction in Homogeneous Soil Slopes Under Hydraulic Variability

Abstract

Slope stability assessment remains a fundamental challenge in geotechnical engineering because of the complex nonlinear interactions among soil properties, slope geometry, and hydraulic conditions, particularly variations in pore-water pressure. This study investigates the reliability of Artificial Neural Network–Multi-Layer Perceptron (ANN–MLP) models for predicting the Factor of Safety (FoS) of homogeneous soil slopes through a systematic comparison of three gradient-based optimization algorithms: Adam, Mini-Batch Gradient Descent (MBGD), and Nesterov Accelerated Gradient (NAG). A database comprising 2014 slope cases, compiled from published studies and numerically generated using Limit Equilibrium Method (LEM) and Finite Element Method (FEM) analyses, was used for model development and k-fold cross-validation. Beyond statistical evaluation, the developed models were validated using two classical dry-slope benchmark frameworks based on the Taylor stability charts and Bishop–Morgenstern stability coefficients, followed by two documented engineering case studies from Hulu Kelang and Pahang, Malaysia, to assess predictive performance under both dry and variable hydraulic conditions. Adam achieved the highest cross-validated predictive accuracy (R2 = 0.988; RMSE = 0.212), whereas MBGD demonstrated the closest overall agreement with the reference LEM solutions across the validation cases and under increasing pore-water pressure ratios. NAG generally produced more conservative predictions while exhibiting greater sensitivity to hyperparameter selection. All models successfully reproduced the expected nonlinear reduction in FoS with increasing pore-water pressure, consistent with established geotechnical behaviour. The results demonstrate that optimizer selection significantly influences ANN–MLP prediction behaviour and that properly validated gradient-based ANN models can serve as efficient decision-support tools for rapid slope stability assessment under hydraulic variability.