Exploring the Spatially Heterogeneous Patterns of Sustainable Environmental Development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt: A Prefecture-Level City Perspective

Abstract

Understanding the spatial distribution and associated factors of sustainable environmental development (SED) is crucial for effectively formulating action plans aimed at achieving the environment-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Because of spatial heterogeneity characterized by non-uniform distributions of SED within a region, the use of a single or aggregated value at the national or provincial scale in existing research obscures internal variabilities and fails to adequately reveal the spatial disparities in the progress of environment-related SDGs. Consequently, this study aims to investigate the spatially heterogeneous patterns of SED in prefecture-level cities within the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB), China—a critical economic zone characterized by stark intra-regional disparities and pressing environmental challenges. To achieve this objective, the SED index is first constructed using principal component weighted aggregation to quantify the SED status, local Moran’s I is then employed to identify heterogenous patters of the spatial distribution patterns of SED, and geographical random forest is utilized to explore spatially varying association patterns between SED and influences factors. In the YREB, the findings indicate the following key insights: (1) SED has generally shown a positive trend across most cities from 2013 to 2021, with approximately 30% experiencing a downward trend, particularly in Jiangxi, Hubei, and Hunan Provinces; (2) the number of high- or low-value aggregation clusters has decreased, concurrent with an increase in spatial variability; (3) human activity disturbance and population density have been identified as significant factors influencing SED, with a notable impact in cities across Sichuan, Chongqing, Guizhou, and Hubei Provinces. This research contributes technical support and a scientific foundation for evaluating and enhancing SED.