Economic and Demographic Sectors Causing Emissions and Their Impact on Environmental Pollution in Iraq: A Standard Study for the Period (1977–2024)

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the evolution of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in Iraq over the period 1977–2024, with a focus on their sectoral distribution. The study relies on data from the World Bank, the World Health Organization, and environmental agencies and uses total carbon emissions as an indicator of environmental pollution. The independent variables include the agricultural sector, the industrial sector, oil production volume, and population growth. Advanced unit root tests, namely the Ng–Perron (2001) and Park (2003) tests, are employed to determine the order of integration of the variables. In addition, the bounds test within the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework is used to estimate both short-run and long-run relationships. The results of the bounds test indicate the existence of co-integration, implying a long-run relationship among the variables. The error correction term is negative and statistically significant (−0.77581), indicating that short-run disequilibria are corrected within less than one year and that the system converges toward its long-run equilibrium. In the long run, all specified independent variables have a statistically significant impact on carbon emissions. In the short run, the agricultural sector exhibits a negative effect on carbon emissions, whereas the industrial sector, oil production, and population growth exert positive effects, leading to higher carbon emissions.