Analysis of the Impact of Weather Change on the Spread of Malaria in Indonesia: A Systematic Literature Study 2014-2024

Abstract

Weather variability is an important ecological determinant of malaria transmission, particularly in tropical regions such as Indonesia. This study aims to analyze the impact of weather changes on malaria distribution in Indonesia during 2014–2024 through a systematic literature review following PRISMA guidelines. Literature searches were conducted in January 2025 using PubMed, ScienceDirect, SpringerLink, and Google Scholar databases. A total of 25 original research articles were analyzed using a narrative synthesis approach. The findings indicate that temperatures of 28–33°C, relative humidity of 75–85%, and moderate rainfall (200–300 mm/month) provide optimal conditions for Anopheles vector development and Plasmodium parasite replication. However, this relationship is non-linear, as temperatures above 33.5°C and extreme rainfall (>500 mm/month) tend to reduce transmission due to increased mosquito mortality and destruction of larval habitats. Global climate phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña influence spatial and temporal fluctuations of malaria cases, particularly in eastern Indonesia. In contrast, non-climatic factors including land-use change, human mobility, community behavior, and control program effectiveness often play a more dominant role. These results highlight that malaria transmission arises from complex interactions between climatic drivers and socio-ecological responses, emphasizing the importance of integrating climate information into surveillance systems to support the 2030 Malaria Elimination target.