Ensuring the continuity of urban infrastructure development in conflict-prone regions: a BIM-driven governance framework and SD–ML analysis for Jordan

Abstract

Building Information Modeling (BIM) is increasingly recognized not only as an efficiency tool but as a critical digital backbone for sustaining urban construction in conflict‑exposed regions. In Jordan, located amid recurrent regional tensions, maintaining the delivery of sustainable infrastructure is essential for urban life to continue during periods of disruption. This study proposes an explanatory hybrid System Dynamics–Machine Learning (SD–ML) framework that models BIM adoption as a governance‑driven digital capacity for construction continuity. A causal System Dynamics model captures feedback among policy pressure, training, and perceived benefits, while a Random Forest (RF) model is used in an explicitly exploratory role to infer the relative influence of key drivers on short‑term adoption changes. A small, multi‑regional panel (2020–2024, N = 28) provides a defensible, though limited, empirical basis for calibration. Results indicate that policy pressure and training are the dominant drivers of the digital maturity required to support project coordination. Baseline projections suggest that, without intervention, Jordan’s urban construction sector reaches only about 45% BIM adoption by 2035, leaving it with constrained digital capacity during physical disruptions. Scenario analysis shows that a combined strategy (mandates, training expansion, and a higher share of BIM‑intensive complex projects) is needed to exceed an indicative 60% adoption benchmark by 2040. We use this 60% level as a conventional digital‑maturity target at which the sector can reasonably be expected to sustain remote coordination and data integrity during regional crises, while noting that it is not a validated resilience threshold. The framework is thus positioned as an uncertainty‑aware, exploratory scenario tool that helps policymakers align BIM‑enabled digital transformation with SDG 11 (Sustainable cities and communities), so that urban infrastructure development in late‑adopting, conflict‑exposed contexts can better maintain continuity when regional shocks occur.