Bayesian-Optimized Machine Learning Framework with SHAP Interpretation for Rockburst Intensity Prediction in Deep Underground Engineering
Abstract
As mineral resource development moves deeper into the earth, mine dynamic disasters, represented by rockbursts, occur frequently. Due to the combined effects of in situ rock stress state and geostress conditions, it is difficult to obtain reliable prediction results using traditional empirical criteria or single-index prediction methods. To address these issues, this paper constructs a rockburst sample database based on the existing literature, including maximum tangential stress, uniaxial compressive strength, uniaxial tensile strength, elastic energy index, stress coefficient, and brittleness coefficient. Secondly, six typical machine learning algorithms are selected for rockburst level classification research. Then, to address the problem of imbalanced sample distribution, the SMOTE oversampling method is introduced to balance the data, and Bayesian optimization and cross-validation are combined to optimize the model hyperparameters. The results show that optimized XGBoost models exhibit high accuracy and stability in rockburst level discrimination, and accuracy reached 0.7664, recall was 0.7664, macro-P was 0.7664, and macro-F1 was 0.7662. Furthermore, taking the BO-XGBoost model as an example, the SHAP method is introduced to analyze the interpretability of the model’s prediction results. The results show that the elastic energy index and stress-related indices are the main controlling factors affecting the intensity of rockburst; they accounted for 25.75% and 22.68%, respectively. Based on the above research results, this paper further explores the ideas for rockburst safety management and prevention from the aspects of energy control, stress regulation, and optimization of rock mass structural characteristics, providing theoretical basis and technical support for the scientific formulation of rockburst risk identification, level prediction, and safety prevention and control measures in deep underground engineering.