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ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IN EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS: GAME THEORY AND RISKS OF STRATEGIC ESCALATION

Jul 2026 · Science and Practice. Knowledge, Understanding. Wisdom (िवन और अस। न। समझ। बुद्धि): collection of articles III Foreign International Scientific Conference (Muvattupuzha (India), May 2026) · pp. 126-131 · 0 citations · 1 references

TL;DR

It is shown that AI simultaneously creates risks of reducing crisis stability and offers potential for strengthening verification and crisis simulation, emphasising the need for international norms that combine human control with transparency of military AI systems.

Abstract

Amid the degradation of classical arms control mechanisms and the rise of multipolar risks, artificial intelligence (AI) technologies are becoming a critical factor in transforming early warning and decision-making systems. Based on an analysis of current developments (Project Maven, “Rubicon”, IAEA systems) and a review of research by leading centres (RAND, Georgia Tech, IST), key AI application areas are identified. Using game theory (the “Chicken” model), escalation scenarios driven by time compression, algorithmic unpredictability, and the psychology of human-machine interaction are formalised. It is shown that AI simultaneously creates risks of reducing crisis stability and offers potential for strengthening verification and crisis simulation. The conclusion emphasises the need for international norms that combine human control with transparency of military AI systems

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