Climate-resilient electric vehicle charging infrastructure for sustainable cities: An interpretable causal-ensemble framework for preventive maintenance and low-carbon mobility

Abstract

Reliable electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure is a cornerstone of sustainable, low-carbon cities, yet urban climate stress such as extreme heat, heavy precipitation, and humidity increasingly raises equipment fault risk and undermines the resilience of urban energy and mobility services. Shifting operation from reactive repair to preventive maintenance depends on accurate, forward-looking fault-risk prediction, a task complicated by the heterogeneous time scales of physical, behavioral, contextual, and historical signals and by forecasting over a multi-week horizon. We develop FGDSE, a feature-governed dynamic stacking ensemble that forms an interpretable decision-support system for climate-resilient charging-asset management. It partitions heterogeneous signals into four feature families, assigns each to a domain expert whose inductive bias matches the data, and adds two deep temporal experts for short-term pulses and long-term degradation; a horizon-wise gating mechanism then learns adaptive weights to forecast daily fault risk over 1 to 30 days. SHAP attribution and an X-learner extend the probabilistic output into causal decision support with post-level treatment effects. On 25 months of data from 13 stations, FGDSE surpasses twelve baselines beyond the ten-day horizon, sustains about 85% macro-recall at 30 days with an AUC decay of only 3.2 points, and reveals a shift of dominance from fault history toward climate stress. It identifies extreme heat as the sole exposure whose causal effect amplifies over time, flagging roughly 30% of posts as heat-sensitive and yielding quantitative thresholds for climate-adaptive maintenance that strengthens urban mobility resilience and sustains low-carbon travel.