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Examining the Nexus Between Fiscal Operations and Capital Market Growth: Implications for Financial Education in Nigeria

Sep 2026 · Journal of Accounting and Financial Management · 0 citations

Abstract

This paper examines how Nigeria’s fiscal operations influence capital market performance in Nigeria. It assesses the effects of government capital and recurrent expenditure, borrowing, and taxes on capital-market depth (market-capitalization/GDP) using annual time series data (1990–2023) and a mix of econometric techniques (unit-root tests, Johansen cointegration, VAR/ECM, Granger causality). The results show no robust long-run effect of aggregate expenditure on MCAP: expenditure impacts depend on composition, financing and operate with lags. By contrast, government-bond conditions negatively and taxes positively associate with long-run MCAP, while short-run predictive links are weak. It therefore concludes that financing structure, not headline spending, drives market depth. Consequently, the government should prioritize transparently appraised, productivity-enhancing capital projects; lengthen debt maturities and reduce short-dated domestic issuance to limit crowding-out through financial literacy and education.

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