Remaining useful life estimation for predictive battery maintenance with improved recurrent singular spectrum analysis algorithm

Abstract

As the global electric vehicle (EV) battery market is projected to reach a valuation of over USD 100 billion by the end of 2026, the demand for sophisticated battery management systems (BMS) has become more critical than ever. Accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction is essential for ensuring vehicle safety, optimizing maintenance, and evaluating retired batteries for second-life applications. However, existing prognostic methods often struggle to balance computational efficiency with predictive accuracy, especially during the early stages of battery usage. This research proposes combined weighted similarity-based and recurrent singular spectrum analysis (CWS-RSSA), a hybrid forecasting framework that integrates RSSA with a similarity-based approach through a weighted logistic switching mechanism. The algorithm is designed to be computationally lightweight, making it suitable for resource-constrained BMS hardware. The proposed method was validated using NASA and a large-scale dataset from MIT-Stanford consisting of 124 lithium-ion cells. Experimental results demonstrate that CWS-RSSA is capable of early-stage prediction with a relative error of 19.8%, whereas existing methods are unable to provide predictions. In later stages, once sufficient data becomes available, the algorithm achieves near-perfect accuracy with a negligible relative error on the NASA dataset and an average relative error of only 0.14% across the 124 MIT-Stanford batteries. Furthermore, the algorithm demonstrates robust performance in handling capacity regeneration phenomena. These findings suggest that CWS-RSSA represents a scalable and practical advancement for battery health management, supporting the transition toward a sustainable circular energy economy and providing a reliable foundation for second-life battery certification.