An Integrated Spatio-Temporal Risk Assessment Model for Fire Dynamics and Evacuation in Subway Tunnels

Abstract

Subway tunnels exacerbate fire hazards, revealing a critical lacuna regarding the spatio-temporal coupling of fire progression and human egress. To address this, this study proposes and validates an Integrated Spatio-Temporal Risk Assessment Model to explicitly quantify survivability thresholds under complex fire dynamics. The framework synergizes Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) based Computational Fluid Dynamics with agent-based pedestrian trajectory modeling within a 3D tunnel featuring a 2% longitudinal gradient. Evaluating 9.5 MW and 12 MW fire energies, the model assessed Single-Sided Evacuation (SSE), Double-Sided Evacuation (DSE), and Sprinkler-Assisted Single-Sided Evacuation (SSE-S) across 2160 agents. Hazards were quantified by continuously resolving Fractional Effective Dose (FED) indices, 60 °C boundaries, and 500 ppm CO fronts. Simulations reveal the gradient induces a severe stack effect, accelerating toxic dispersion and yielding temperatures exceeding 1200 °C. Consequently, SSE engendered fatal bottlenecks (FED: 15.33), whereas DSE optimized pedestrian flux, capping peak FED at 0.52. Crucially, while active suppression (SSE-S) extinguished flames within 105 s, thermodynamic cooling induced a paradoxical loss of smoke buoyancy, causing toxic layers to stratify at the breathing zone. Ultimately, while DSE and SSE-S are paramount for survivability, water-based suppression generates localized toxicological risks, necessitating the integration of low-level smoke detection and extraction architectures in future subterranean designs.