Geological Suitability and Urban Development: A GIS-Based Assessment of the City of Valjevo, Serbia

Abstract

Geological conditions fundamentally constrain land-use suitability, terrain stability, and long-term sustainability, yet they remain underutilized in urban planning frameworks. This study presents a GIS-based geological suitability assessment model, tested on the City of Valjevo, Serbia, integrating lithological, structural, land use/land cover change and spatial data to guide urban development decisions. Seven lithological units—Quaternary deposits, lacustrine sediments, carbonate rocks, volcanic and pyroclastic rocks, ophiolites, ophiolitic mélanges, and Jadar Block sediments—were classified into four suitability classes based on lithological composition, structural characteristics, and rock mass behavior. An Integrated Geological Index (Igeo) was derived using an area-weighted approach across a regular hexagonal grid, enabling spatially explicit suitability mapping. Comparison with land use/land cover changes for 2012–2021 revealed a notable mismatch between geological suitability and observed development patterns: favorable and conditionally favorable terrains cover 72.5% of the study area but account for only 48.7% of recent urban expansion, while unfavorable terrains, occupying just 20.9% of the territory, absorbed 51.3% of new development. No expansion occurred within highly unfavorable terrains. These findings expose critical gaps in integrating geological criteria into planning practice and demonstrate a reproducible methodology for embedding geological suitability into sustainable urban development strategies across geologically heterogeneous regions.