RIDING THE DOLLAR TIDE: RISK-MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES AND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF BRAZILIAN AGRIBUSINESS EXPORTERS AMID EXCHANGE-RATE VOLATILITY

Abstract

This study examines how exchange-rate fluctuations, through both asset-side and liability-side exposures, affect the accounting-based performance of Brazilian agribusiness firms listed on B3 over 2020-2025. The analysis draws on a representative sample of 11 firms selected from an updated sector population and evaluates profitability ratios. Quarterly changes in the BRL/USD exchange rate, obtained from the Central Bank of Brazil, constitute the focal independent variable and are related to firm performance using panel-data regressions. The results show that exchange-rate volatility is statistically significant in selected firm-level analyses, yet the aggregate specifications provide no robust evidence of a uniform effect on profitability. This divergence underscores the heterogeneity of exchange-rate exposure and cautions against one-size-fits-all risk policies. Effective currency-risk management therefore requires firm-specific hedging strategies and adaptive financial planning, particularly under heightened macroeconomic and financial uncertainty.