Can artificial intelligence be the answer to green development? evidence from China’s artificial intelligence innovation and development pilot zones

Abstract

Using panel data for 282 Chinese cities from 2011 to 2023, this study examines whether AIoriented place-based policy promotes urban green development. We exploit the staggered rollout of China’s National New Generation Artificial Intelligence Innovation and Development Pilot Zones (AIIDPZ) as a quasi-natural experiment and estimate its causal effect on urban green total factor productivity (GTFP) using a staggered difference-in-differences approach. The results show that AIIDPZ significantly improves urban GTFP. Mechanism analyses suggest that this effect mainly operates through industrial structure upgrading and green technological innovation. Heterogeneity tests further show that the effect is stronger in eastern cities, non-resource-based cities, and cities with better digital infrastructure. Overall, this study provides new evidence that AI-oriented public policy can contribute to green development and offers implications for the design of regional innovation policy.