Forecasting the Tianjin Container Freight Index (TCI) Using a PCC–CNN–GRU Hybrid Model

Abstract

The Tianjin Container Freight Index (TCI) is a key benchmark for container shipping prices in northern China and is strongly driven by macroeconomic conditions and trade fluctuations. This study proposes a PCC–CNN–GRU hybrid deep learning framework for TCI forecasting using 25,870 daily observations from 13 April 2015, to 1 January 2024. The model combines Pearson Correlation Coefficient (PCC)-based feature selection, convolutional neural networks (CNN) for local temporal feature extraction, and gated recurrent units (GRU) for capturing long-term dependencies, thereby addressing the nonlinear and nonstationary characteristics of TCI data. Empirical results show that the proposed model achieves an R2 of 91.24%, outperforming standalone CNN, GRU, and classical ARIMA and VAR models. The model demonstrates strong robustness to structural changes and noise, enhancing its suitability for complex market environments. The integrated framework provides reliable forecasting support for shipping companies, logistics planners, and policymakers in pricing, capacity planning, and sustainable maritime operations. This study contributes to the growing integration of intelligent forecasting methods with regional freight index analysis and supports the digital transformation of the container shipping industry.