Hydrogen Road Transport Development in Poland (2025–2040): Demand-Supply Potential and Comparative Insights with EU Countries
Abstract
This article summarizes the results of a demand-and-supply analysis of hydrogen road transport development in Poland, conducted as part of a research project at the Motor Transport Institute in 2025, with a time horizon extending to 2040. The central aim of the study is to identify optimal hydrogen refueling station locations and develop a phased deployment plan. It also assesses the potential for using hydrogen as an alternative transport fuel in Poland compared with other European countries. The article presents a multi-criteria decision-making model developed to support the planning of hydrogen infrastructure for the Polish transport system. The model’s assumptions and the research results concerning the selection of hydrogen refueling station locations in large cities are discussed. Technical, ecological, logistical, legal, and social aspects related to the implementation of hydrogen infrastructure are analyzed. The article also outlines methods for parameterizing and assessing the potential for hydrogen adoption in transport. Forecasts indicate that the development of a hydrogen vehicle fleet could contribute to improved public health, sustainable development, and a reduction in the negative effects of high emissions. The objective of the research is to determine the environmental and energy-transition impacts of shifting from combustion-powered transport to hydrogen over the coming decades. The study introduces an innovative modeling approach, as previous research has not examined city rankings and urban mobility plans with comparable depth to identify, structure, and weight the criteria used for selecting optimal hydrogen refueling station locations. Although independent validation remains unattainable due to the absence of certain operational data, the study’s findings can support transport, energy, and climate strategies, with robustness defined strictly as internal stability and cross-method consistency.