IMPROVING THE NBU’S MONETARY REGULATION INSTRUMENTS UNDER MARTIAL LAW AND POST-WAR ECONOMIC RECOVERY

Abstract

The relevance of the study is determined by the need to adapt the monetary regulation framework of the National Bank of Ukraine to the unprecedented challenges caused by the full-scale war and to the objectives of post-war economic recovery. Persistent inflation and exchange rate risks, fiscal imbalances, a structural liquidity surplus in the banking system, and the need to expand financing of the real sector require a reassessment of monetary instruments and a balance between macrofinancial stability and sustainable bank lending.The purpose of the article is to assess the effectiveness of the monetary regulation instruments applied by the National Bank of Ukraine under martial law and to substantiate directions for their improvement in the context of post-war economic recovery. The research methodology combines statistical and comparative analysis, structural and dynamic analysis, systematisation, generalisation and synthesis. The empirical basis includes official statistical and analytical data of the National Bank of Ukraine for 2022-2025.The results demonstrate that the measures implemented by the NBU contributed to maintaining macrofinancial stability, preserving banking sector resilience and limiting excessive exchange rate fluctuations. At the same time, a substantial liquidity surplus was accompanied by significant volumes of banks’ funds invested in NBU certificates of deposit, while lending to the economy remained insufficient. In 2024-2025 lending activity recovered considerably, including accelerated growth in hryvnia-denominated business loans and long-term financing.The study substantiates the need to improve structural liquidity management, strengthen the credit channel of monetary transmission, gradually adjust interest rate policy in line with sustainable disinflation, develop war-risk insurance and risk-sharing mechanisms, improve state credit support programmes, and continue gradual foreign exchange liberalisation. A differentiated model of interaction between the NBU, the government, international financial institutions and commercial banks in financing post-war recovery is proposed.The practical value of the results lies in the possibility of using the proposed recommendations to improve monetary regulation, enhance the efficiency of banking liquidity allocation, expand long-term lending to the real sector, and create financial conditions for investment activity and sustainable post-war economic recovery in Ukraine.