THE STATE AND PROSPECTS OF THE STOCK MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

Abstract

The article analyzes the current state of the Russian stock market, its structural features, key trends and challenges, as well as development prospects in the context of geopolitical instability and tightening monetary policy. The relevance of the study is due to the drastic transformation of the Russian stock market after 2022, characterized by the departure of foreign investors, the dominance of domestic private investors and the reorientation of trade flows. Based on data from the Moscow Stock Exchange, the Bank of Russia, and analytical reviews for 2020-2025, the paper examines the dynamics of key indicators - the Moscow Exchange Index (IMOEX) and the RTS index (RTSI), conducts a comparative analysis of their behavior, and reveals a stable correlation with oil prices, the ruble exchange rate, and the Central Bank's key rate decisions. It is shown that while maintaining the key rate at 16.5%, capital flows from the equity market into debt instruments, net purchases of shares by private investors decrease, and market capitalization in dollar terms has decreased fourfold compared to the peak of 2021. Special attention is paid to the industry structure of the market (raw materials account for about 68% of capitalization) and the analysis of the largest issuers such as Gazprom, Sberbank, LUKOIL, Norilsk Nickel. Two scenarios for further development have been formulated - positive (index growth to 3800-3900 points) and conservative (range of 2900-3000 points). In conclusion, measures are proposed to improve the market: the revision of regulation of pension funds, the introduction of long-term tax benefits and the development of individual investment accounts of the third type to stimulate long-term savings.