Data-Driven Modeling of Industrial Robot Repeatability Using Ensemble Artificial Neural Networks Under Varying Operational Conditions

Abstract

The positional repeatability of industrial robots is a critical yet state-dependent performance metric, highly sensitive to thermal conditioning and mechanical loading. This study develops a data-driven framework for predicting repeatability of FANUC LR Mate 200iD (FANUC, Oshino-mura, Japan) and KUKA KR 6 R700 Sixx (KUKA AG, Augsburg, Germany) robots under varying operational conditions. ISO 9283-compliant experiments using a TriCal system (TRI-CAL Ltd., Montreal, QC, Canada) were conducted across three warm-up durations, three payload levels, and five poses. Ensemble artificial neural networks with 10 independently trained networks were developed for each robot. The FANUC model achieved R2 = 0.9922, RMSE = 0.004231 mm, and MAE = 0.002979 mm, while the KUKA model achieved R2 = 0.9926, RMSE = 0.002919 mm, and MAE = 0.002215 mm. Prediction interval coverage was 93.3% for FANUC and 100% for KUKA. Per-pose R2 ranged from 0.9588 to 0.9966 for KUKA. Response surface analysis identified thermal stabilization as the dominant factor affecting repeatability, with improvements of 86% for FANUC and 84% for KUKA after 4 h of warm-up. The KUKA robot demonstrated superior robustness and lower variability compared to the FANUC robot. The framework provides a practical tool for predicting repeatability, supporting process planning, uncertainty budgeting, and precision manufacturing optimization.