THE IMPACT OF GREEN ENERGY DEVELOPMENT ON INTERNATIONAL OIL AND GAS TRADE
Abstract
The aim of this study is to comprehensively analyze the quantitative and qualitative changes in international oil and gas trade driven by growing interest in new renewable energy technologies (RES). This objective is achieved by analyzing RES dynamics in key importing countries, assessing quantitative and geographic shifts in hydrocarbon trade, highlighting the trend of reorientation toward Asia, and developing recommendations for exporters aimed at economic diversification, developing the petrochemical industry, and increasing supply flexibility through investment in LNG capacity. Particular attention is paid to analyzing the effects of substituting hydrocarbon exports with green generation, as well as the adaptation strategies of exporting countries. The paper analyzes the dynamics of RES development in the European Union, China, and Russia, assessing structural shifts in the volumes and directions of hydrocarbon trade flows, highlighting the role of sanctions and climate policy, and establishing cause-and-effect relationships between the development of green energy and the transformation of trade flows using statistical methods. The study's key finding is that the growth of renewable energy capacity in the EU and China is leading to a reduction in hydrocarbon imports (by 11,1% in the EU) and a shift in trade flows to Asian markets. Cause-and-effect relationships between the development of renewable energy generation and the decline in long-term demand for oil and gas are identified. The practical significance of the study lies in the development of tools for minimizing economic losses for exporting countries during the green transition.