Understanding livelihood vulnerability under water scarcity: a qualitative study of agricultural communities in Pakistan’s rain fed areas

Abstract

Water scarcity in Pakistan’s rain fed agro ecological zones severely affects agricultural livelihoods, yet qualitative evidence on household vulnerability pathways remains limited. This study investigates livelihood vulnerability in Punjab’s Pothwar Plateau, addressing (1) how water scarcity affects livelihood capitals, (2) gendered patterns of vulnerability and adaptation, and (3) institutional constraints on adaptive responses. Using a qualitative interpretivist design, we conducted semi structured interviews with thirty key informants across four categories (agricultural producers, local government officials, civil society practitioners, and community knowledge holders) in Attock, Chakwal, and Jhelum. Household level findings derive primarily from the nine agricultural producers (smallholder farmers). Data were analyzed using reflexive thematic analysis, integrating the IPCC AR6 vulnerability framework, the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework, and feminist political ecology. Findings reveal water scarcity as a cross cutting stressor that simultaneously degrades natural, physical, human, and financial capital assets a cascading effect consistently described by participants. Women bear disproportionate burdens, including intensified unpaid labor for water collection and livestock care, yet face structural exclusion from extension services, credit, and decision-making. Adaptation is constrained less by individual capacity than by institutional fragmentation, limited infrastructure, and policy marginalization of rain fed regions. All numerical data (e.g., rainfall amounts, yield gaps) are cited from published secondary sources. Primary findings are presented as thematic patterns and illustrative participant quotations. The study provides context specific, in depth insights into vulnerability pathways, emphasizing gendered labor intensification and institutional exclusion rather than asset substitution. These insights call for structural interventions addressing land access, credit availability, and women’s decision-making authority.