Economic sustainability of agricultural and processing enterprises amid rising prices for energy carriers, fertilizers, and logistics services on world markets

Abstract

The article examines the economic sustainability of agricultural producers and processing enterprises under conditions of increased volatility in global prices for energy carriers, mineral fertilizers, and logistics services, when short-term cost impulses prove more critical than annual averages. It is shown that risk arises from the asynchrony in the dynamics of «input» and «output» prices: with a relatively moderate change in the food market conjuncture, the growth of resource-intensive items leads to margin compression and transformation of the problem into a cash-flow one, increasing dependence on working capital and credit limits. Based on a parametric financial model for typical crop production and processing enterprises, stress-testing was conducted with assessment of EBITDA, free cash flow, and debt metrics DSCR and Net Debt/EBITDA. Calculations demonstrate rapid deterioration of solvency with limited revenue indexation: under stress conditions, negative free cash flow values are recorded and DSCR falls below unity, while for processing, the effect is amplified by low initial EBITDA margin and dominance of raw materials in cost structure. An applied interpretation of investment-management measures as «real hedge» (precise application of fertilizers, fuel optimization, logistics planning, cogeneration) is proposed, with comparison of their financial efficiency and impact on cost predictability and covenant sustainability.