China-East Asia comparison of male infertility burden and trend prediction: evidence from GBD 2023

Abstract

Background Male infertility represents a substantial concern within the global realm of reproductive health, especially in East Asia. In this region, traditional cultural and family values exert considerable pressure on both individuals and society. Despite the rapid progress of assisted reproductive technologies (ART) in East Asia, the epidemiological burden associated with male infertility remains insufficiently evaluated. This report analyzes the male infertility rate in East Asia based on the male infertility data in Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. Methods This research was grounded in the 2023 GBD database. Infertility-related data concerning male infertility in East Asian countries (China, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Mongolia) were extracted, encompassing indicators such as the case number, prevalence, and years of life lost due to disability (YLDs). Joinpoint regression was utilized to analyze temporal trends, with the annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) calculated. The auto regression integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was applied to forecast the prevalence of male-infertility-related conditions in China. Results In 2023, the approximate number of infertility cases related to male infertility in East Asia was 12.827 million, with China accounting for 92.8%. China had the highest age-standardized prevalence (16,086 per 100,000) and YLDs rate (8.85 per 100,000), while South Korea had the lowest. From 1990 to 2023, Mongolia witnessed the most significant increase (AAPC =0.28%), China maintained stability (AAPC =0.01%), and South Korea and Japan demonstrated a downward trend. Primary infertility showed an upward trend in Mongolia and China, while secondary infertility was more burdensome in China and Japan. Projections suggest that by 2051, the number of male infertility cases in China will remain at 10.759 million, with secondary infertility being the dominant form. Conclusions The burden of infertility diseases associated with male infertility in East Asia displays notable national heterogeneity and stage-specific evolutionary traits. Future endeavors should concentrate on formulating differentiated prevention and control strategies tailored to national characteristics, enhancing environmental governance, reproductive health services, and early intervention.