Can evolution be predicted and how does this affect Big History

Abstract

Can our understanding of evolution be used to make predictions, both within biology and on larger historical scales? Opinions diverge. Skeptics emphasize that contingency and chance—such as random genetic variation and drift— preclude detailed prediction. In contrast, proponents point to recurring patterns and general trends, such as the evolution of consumers in the presence of food, and the long-term increase in organismal complexity and information processing from bacteria to multicellular life. This article introduces a new perspective on complexity increase based on a stepwise process termed dual closure. Dual closure refers to the couplings, one after the other, of the combinations of a cyclic process with its containment. For example, the transition from molecular to bacterial systems involved the closure of catalytic reaction networks, coupled with their encapsulation by a membrane. The result is a hierarchy linking physical and biological evolution. Extrapolating from this hierarchy suggests that the emergence of technical beings is a likely next step.