Interaction impact of demographic and digital economy on carbon emissions in China

Abstract

Despite the digital economy’s potential to support decarbonization, the role of population dynamics in shaping this association remains unclear. More empirical and theoretical studies are needed to understand this relationship. Based on this background, this study aims to explore the complex associations between the digital economy, population, and carbon emissions based on China 31 provinces panel data from 2000 to 2020 sourced from the China Statistical Yearbook. The study innovatively employs a population distance matrix to analyze how population factors condition the digital economy-emissions association and utilizes a structural equation model to overcome the limitations of traditional single-pathway mediation analyses. The findings suggest that the digital economy is significantly negatively associated with carbon dioxide emissions across China, with notable spatial spillover associations. Additionally, there is a strong negative-emissions association between population ageing and the digital economy, while population mobility exhibits a significant negative association. Moreover, as population density increases, the association between the digital economy and emissions initially intensifies, then diminishes.